Wednesday, August 31, 2005
Ahead in Epsom
Great news everybody!!
Rodney Hide is ahead in the race to win Epsom for the first time. And I'm going to give you the figures.
Rodney Hide 30.79
Richard Worth 29.97
Stuart Nash 11.99
Other 2.8
Don't Know 25.07
This is the first time that Rodney has been in the lead in Epsom but confirms the trend in recent weeks from our internal polling. Rodney has been gaining steadily in each poll that we have conducted, knocking a few points off Worth each time and adding a few of his own.
This is a remarkable turnaround from just a few months ago which showed Rodney at 14.8% to Richard Worth's 55. The other interesting factor is that Stuart Nash, who was second in July, has fallen right behind - solidifying Epsom as a two horse race.
The message that Epsom voters are getting is that they can vote for Worth and get Worth. Or they can vote for Rodney and get Rodney, Worth, + ACT MPs to support National + potentially a change in government. That is a message which is resonating.
I fully expect with this news ACT's polling to lift as well. More and more so as Epsom looks to be in the bag. This will upset those who continuously and erroneously say that ACT at 2% is not worth having in parliament and doesn't provide much of a support partner for National. Well people have every reason to flock back to ACT now. They can be more confident that their vote won't be wasted.
Some information about the poll. It was conducted last night of 360 Epsom residents and has a margin of error of 5.2%. It has been controlled and verified by Capitol Research (Aust). Also the residents surveyed were selected at random to match the voting demographics of Epsom. For example there are twice as many 18-29 year olds in Epsom than 65+, and this was taken into account.
WE"RE BACK!!!!
Visit the ACT on Campus web site!
Rodney Hide is ahead in the race to win Epsom for the first time. And I'm going to give you the figures.
Rodney Hide 30.79
Richard Worth 29.97
Stuart Nash 11.99
Other 2.8
Don't Know 25.07
This is the first time that Rodney has been in the lead in Epsom but confirms the trend in recent weeks from our internal polling. Rodney has been gaining steadily in each poll that we have conducted, knocking a few points off Worth each time and adding a few of his own.
This is a remarkable turnaround from just a few months ago which showed Rodney at 14.8% to Richard Worth's 55. The other interesting factor is that Stuart Nash, who was second in July, has fallen right behind - solidifying Epsom as a two horse race.
The message that Epsom voters are getting is that they can vote for Worth and get Worth. Or they can vote for Rodney and get Rodney, Worth, + ACT MPs to support National + potentially a change in government. That is a message which is resonating.
I fully expect with this news ACT's polling to lift as well. More and more so as Epsom looks to be in the bag. This will upset those who continuously and erroneously say that ACT at 2% is not worth having in parliament and doesn't provide much of a support partner for National. Well people have every reason to flock back to ACT now. They can be more confident that their vote won't be wasted.
Some information about the poll. It was conducted last night of 360 Epsom residents and has a margin of error of 5.2%. It has been controlled and verified by Capitol Research (Aust). Also the residents surveyed were selected at random to match the voting demographics of Epsom. For example there are twice as many 18-29 year olds in Epsom than 65+, and this was taken into account.
WE"RE BACK!!!!
Visit the ACT on Campus web site!
Comments:
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This is absolutely fantastic!!! I am so wrapped that New Zealanders are starting to get to grips with MMP. It makes more sense for people to make their vote count and by voting for Rodney they are getting 2 MPs. Epsom is lucky, I wish I could have 2 MPs for my votes!!
Thats great news! Go Rodney :) I do find the fact that 25% of people don't know who they'd vote for a bit worrying however. Perhaps they need to be educated about MMP.
James, the undecided's I spoke to on Sunday were only undecided on RW or RH. Most were smart enough to tell me (not vice versa) that they would vote for Rodney if doing so brought, say, 5-6 centre-right MP's and not just 1. That is the key thing now. Epsom voters are not stupid.
How much did you have to pay the Tailor's Dummy to open his mouth so wide at just the right time? Amusing to see the poll was taken just after he fired his salvos at National. Wonder how his little red and blue phones are going these days?
Yes Adolf, That was certainly a silly move on his behalf. I fully endorse what Brash said about him last night where he said he should know what he (Winston) is talking about but it is a shame that he doesn't.
However it doesn't change the reality that National needs a stable support partner. This is where ACT steps in and says we'll support National. ;)
However it doesn't change the reality that National needs a stable support partner. This is where ACT steps in and says we'll support National. ;)
Heh good stuff.Old PC is not too impressed however claiming your polling is dodgy at best.Awww poor dear!He was giddy with delight that ACT would disappear leaving his Libz as the only "Freedom" party in NZ.Coming to from his alcoholic haze this morning and seeing this must really have been a downer...Heh Heh! ;-0
# posted by 
: 8/31/2005 11:23 AM
: 8/31/2005 11:23 AM
So that means lefties should give their vote to Worth so Act can be gone for good.
# posted by : 8/31/2005 12:39 PM
: 8/31/2005 12:39 PM
Thats what I thought a while back Anon.How will National cope when the Leftys abandon Nash to back Worth to defeat Hide? The reality of tactical voting will slap them in the face good and hard unless they make the hard call in Epsom...
# posted by : 8/31/2005 1:10 PM
: 8/31/2005 1:10 PM
While this is positive news, I think you should avoid phrases like "its in the bag". A week, let alone three, is a long time in politics. Don't slack off!
So let me get this straight, the left voters in Epsom are smart enough and ruthless enough to vote for a National candidate just to get rid of Rodney - yeah right!
Also, last time I looked, Libertarianz was not represented in parliament. So, how does ACT not getting MPs back in the house mean it will suddenly vanish leaving Libz as the only "freedom" party? Did the Alliance "vanish" after 2002?
Also, last time I looked, Libertarianz was not represented in parliament. So, how does ACT not getting MPs back in the house mean it will suddenly vanish leaving Libz as the only "freedom" party? Did the Alliance "vanish" after 2002?
# posted by : 8/31/2005 3:04 PM
: 8/31/2005 3:04 PM
James,
what reason have you to believe PC is an alcoholic? Seems you're the deluded one.
what reason have you to believe PC is an alcoholic? Seems you're the deluded one.
# posted by : 8/31/2005 4:03 PM
: 8/31/2005 4:03 PM
Sigh...PC (and a good number of the Libz "elite" are big time pissheads,ask around.The Libz hatred for ACT is based on envy and thinking that they are "the truth,the way ,the light".Thats partly why they helped knife Jim Peron as head guru Perigo hated the idea of a rival (Think Stalin v Troksky)who existed in spite of him.The Libz are content to wallow in their illusion of relavance and blow up at those who are closest to them politically if they look like they are achieving something seperate to the Libz...the very idea!
# posted by : 8/31/2005 5:57 PM
: 8/31/2005 5:57 PM
"So let me get this straight, the left voters in Epsom are smart enough and ruthless enough to vote for a National candidate just to get rid of Rodney - yeah right!"...
Well...if we can think of it why wouldn't the Left? It makes perfect sense from their side,does it not? Keeping Hide out of Epsom will be the killer blow against the Right,no question as the maths goes.
Well...if we can think of it why wouldn't the Left? It makes perfect sense from their side,does it not? Keeping Hide out of Epsom will be the killer blow against the Right,no question as the maths goes.
# posted by : 8/31/2005 6:00 PM
: 8/31/2005 6:00 PM
Nice work guys, don't let this poll excite you too much. You need to build on this momentum and stick to it.
I don't think harrassing the Libz is a good idea. PC and the others keep ACT on their toes, making sure we don't get too carried away and go all statist like National.
Speaking of National, when do you think they will ever get the idea of MMP?
I don't think harrassing the Libz is a good idea. PC and the others keep ACT on their toes, making sure we don't get too carried away and go all statist like National.
Speaking of National, when do you think they will ever get the idea of MMP?
There's nothing wrong with being a pisshead politician-
"It dushunt give my opponentsh mush time ta runnup ta an elecshun"
"It dushunt give my opponentsh mush time ta runnup ta an elecshun"
# posted by : 9/01/2005 12:18 PM
: 9/01/2005 12:18 PM
Anonymous said...
"So let me get this straight, the left voters in Epsom are smart enough and ruthless enough to vote for a National candidate just to get rid of Rodney - yeah right!"
Today in Fridays Herald..Page A4..
"How to vote vote National to back Labour"...
..."Helen Clark has warned Labour that voters may be encouraged to vote for Nationals candidate in Epsom if Don Brash attempts a last minute deal over the seat to save ACT..."
..and guess what it was about Anon...?"I told you so" doesn't really say it mmmm?...;-)
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"So let me get this straight, the left voters in Epsom are smart enough and ruthless enough to vote for a National candidate just to get rid of Rodney - yeah right!"
Today in Fridays Herald..Page A4..
"How to vote vote National to back Labour"...
..."Helen Clark has warned Labour that voters may be encouraged to vote for Nationals candidate in Epsom if Don Brash attempts a last minute deal over the seat to save ACT..."
..and guess what it was about Anon...?"I told you so" doesn't really say it mmmm?...;-)
# posted by : 9/02/2005 8:17 PM
: 9/02/2005 8:17 PM Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
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